A report prepared by Financiera de Desarrollo Territorial (Findeter) establishes that «as the Colombian pension system is designed, the possibility of accessing a pension does not exceed 25% of the elderly.»

(Letters from unions and AFP for the pension reform: this is proposed).

“However, this proportion seems optimistic regarding what could happen with the members of a cohort in Colombia, that of those born in 1960, when the national population was estimated at 16 million, the birth rate of 46 per thousand and the fertility at 6.7%”, Ricardo Bonilla González, president of Findeter in the conclusions of the report.

For that year, even though the Dane no longer has historical related reports, it was estimated the population distribution in 49.5% men and 50.5% women, lower than the current figure, where the female majority is accentuated with 51.2%, orbirths of 680,000 people and deaths of 190,000, for a real annual increase in the population of 490,000 Colombians.

According to Findeter, these estimates are consistent with the 1964 Dane census, which yielded a total of 17.5 million inhabitants. In 1960, life expectancy at birth was 55 years for men and 59 years for women, bringing the average to 57 years, 20 years below what is reported today (74 years for men). and 80 for women, with an average of 77 years).

This group, which currently has 62 effective years of life, exhibited an increase in their life expectancy, driven by the reduction in mortality rates, as well as by the improvement in the treatments for chronic diseases.

(Ministry rules out that Colpensiones could become a bank).

Given these figures, it is worth asking How many of those born in 1960 are alive? How many will be able to access a pension? What will happen to the rest? Based on the pension requirements and the age established to access it (57 years for women and 62 for men), the study will establish the respective cohorts by gender.

The study analyzes how many Colombians born in 1960 are still alive, based on the figure that in 2020 some 439,310 people turned 60, equivalent to 69% of those born alive in 1960, while the remaining percentage (31%) correspond to people who died or who migrated to other countries.

(They set savings conditions for 2023 through the Beps program).

The report also inquires about how many people in that group have already received an old-age, disability or survival pension to determine how many are still without a pension.

Based on the figures analyzed, it is concluded that access to an old-age pension is reduced, then, to only 15.5% of affiliates in both mechanisms, who reached retirement age in 2021. In Colpensiones there were 35,688, (the 17.4% of its affiliates), while the RAIS reported 24,174 (13.4% of its affiliates).