The man challenging Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey’s presidential election this weekend received a boost on Thursday when a small-party candidate abruptly withdrew and a closely watched poll gave him a lead of more than five percentage points.
Muharrem Ince, one of four candidates contesting Sunday’s vote, said on Thursday he was withdrawing from the race.
Ince was one of four candidates in the vote, along with Erdogan, his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu and Sinan Ogan.
His retirement could reshape the final days of the campaign in what is seen as Erdogan’s biggest test of his two-decade reign.
Turkey’s main stock index rose 6% after Ince made the shock announcement outside his party’s Ankara headquarters. Financial markets are on edge as Kilicdaroglu has vowed to reverse Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies.
A poll by pollster Konda put support for Erdogan at 43.7% and Kilicdaroglu at 49.3%, leaving him below the majority needed to win in the first round and suggesting the election would go to a second round. between the two men on May 28.
The survey was conducted on May 6 and 7, prior to Ince’s announcement.
Nonetheless, the findings were largely in line with some other polls that put Kilicdaroglu in the lead. He was named candidate of a six-party opposition alliance and also heads the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the banner under which Ince ran unsuccessfully for president in 2018.
Erdogan’s re-election bid has been complicated by a cost-of-living crisis, triggered by a plummeting lira and skyrocketing inflation, and a devastating earthquake in February that killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey and left millions homeless.
Ince, who garnered 2.2% support in Konda’s poll, said he had been the target of a smear campaign including fake videos and documents circulating on social media, and accused journalists and prosecutors of failing to do so. his work.
“I am not afraid of plots, fake video edits, invoices and non-existent jeeps. I have been resisting this for 45 days,” he said, adding that some people had accused him of working with Erdogan to prevent Kilicdaroglu’s election.
“I withdraw from the candidacy. I am doing this for my country,” she said.
He did not support another candidate and asked people to vote for his party in the parliamentary elections.
“There is no question that Erdogan is up against a majority that wants change, and that includes young people,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution. «The only question is whether people believe that Kilicdaroglu is that change agent.»
«Whether he narrowly wins or not, I feel like the Erdogan era is over,» he added. “Turkish society is ready to move on. And unfortunately, President Erdogan is not leaving behind an institutional governance model.
up to the wire
Konda’s poll put support for the fourth presidential candidate, Sinan Ogan, at 4.8%. Konda had said that most Ogan and Ince voters were inclined to vote for Kilicdaroglu in a runoff.
A Metropoll poll also showed the vote went to a runoff, with Kilicdaroglu getting 49.1% and Erdogan 46.9%. In a runoff, Kilicdaroglu won with 51.3%.
Konda supported Erdogan’s ruling alliance with 44.0% in the parliamentary vote, ahead of the main opposition alliance with 39.9%. The pro-Kurdish HDP party, which backs Kilicdaroglu, is expected to play a «king-making» role.
Konda said the HDP, which is running under another party’s banner due to the threat of a court ban, and its left-wing allies win 12.3% of support in the parliamentary vote. That would leave Erdogan and his allies in the minority.
Konda, which publicly releases only one poll ahead of the vote, conducted face-to-face interviews with 3,480 people at 35 provincial centers. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.2% with a confidence level of 99%, Konda said.