A whopping two-thirds of Republican primary voters say they back former President Donald Trump and dismiss concerns about his eligibility, despite his recent criminal arrest and other legal investigations into his past conduct. according to a new national poll from NBC News.
That, coupled with his double-digit lead over his closest possible Republican rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, makes Trump the clear favorite in the early race for the Republican presidential nomination.
The GOP’s continued enthusiasm for Trump is in stark contrast to the discontent of a nation anxious about how the 2024 race shapes up. A substantial majority of all Americans do not want Trump or President Joe Biden to run for president in 2024, which sets up a potentially divisive and uninspiring general election rematch between the two men, with Biden expected to launch his re-election bid in the coming days.
And half of those who don’t want the 80-year-old Biden to run say the president’s age is a «main» reason.
Trump is 76 years old.
“At this stage, 2024 is shaping up to be a sequel to the 2020 election,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff and his team at Public Opinion Strategies. «Sequels are frequently blockbusters, but apparently not at the polls.»
McInturff, the Republican pollster, adds: «It’s clear that people don’t want a rematch between Biden and Trump.»
The NBC News poll, conducted April 14-18, comes after Trump’s arrest and arraignment in New York City on charges of falsifying business records in a secret money case.
It also comes as prosecutors and grand juries in Atlanta and Washington, DC examine the former president’s alleged interference in the results of the 2020 Georgia election, his role in the January 6 attack on the Capitol and his handling of classified documents. found at his Mar-a-Lago home.
Despite the indictment against him and the other investigations into his conduct, Trump is leading the first national test of the Republican presidential race according to the NBC News poll.
Forty-six percent of Republican primary voters choose Trump as their first choice, while 31% select DeSantis as their preferred 2024 candidate.
They are followed by former Vice President Mike Pence with 6% and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott, RS.C. (who is exploring a 2024 bid) and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, all tied at 3%. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy has 2%.
Meanwhile, DeSantis is the second choice of 33% of Republican primary voters, Trump is the second choice of 20% and Haley is the second choice of 14%.
What also stands out in the poll, however, is that nearly 70% of Republican primary voters say they back Trump despite the various investigations he faces.
Sixty-eight percent of Republican primary voters agree with the claim that the investigations into Trump are politically motivated and designed to prevent him from being president again, and that they should support him now to prevent his opponents from winning .
That compares with 26% who agree with the opposite statement: that it’s important to nominate a different candidate who won’t get distracted and can focus only on beating Biden in the general election.
Yet among all voters, not just Republicans, 52% believe the same standard is held for Trump as anyone else accused of doing what he did while facing charges in New York. Another 43% disagree, saying that he is being unfairly targeted.
Majority don’t want Biden and Trump to run for president in 2024
The NBC News poll also comes just days before Biden’s long-awaited re-election announcement.
According to the poll, 70% of all Americans, including 51% of Democrats, believe that he should not run for a second term.
Half of those who say Biden shouldn’t run cite his age as a «main» reason.
“The president needs to reflect the age group in the country. They should both retire,” said a Washington state Democratic respondent, also referring to Trump. «It’s someone else’s turn.»
As for Trump, 60% of Americans, including a third of Republicans, believe the former president should not run in 2024.
41% say they would vote for Biden in the general election
The NBC News poll finds a combined 41% of registered voters saying they would definitely or probably vote for Biden in the general election, versus 47% who say they would vote for the eventual Republican nominee.
By party, 88% of Democratic voters say they would definitely or probably vote for Biden, compared to just 22% of independents and just 3% of Republicans.
Additionally, 41% of all adults in the survey approve of Biden’s job performance while 54% disapprove, down from Biden’s rating of 45% approve and 50% disapprove in January.
By party, 83% of Democrats approve of how Biden has done his job, compared to 30% of independents and just 6% of Republicans.
“President Biden’s numbers are not where they need to be at this stage,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster, noting the president’s struggles with independents.
Even so, Biden continues to be more popular than Trump: 38% of adults have a positive view of the current president, compared to 48% with a negative view (-10).
That compares with Trump’s 34% positive and 53% negative rating (-19).
“Yes, Joe Biden has work to do, but he is still viewed less negatively than Donald Trump,” Horwitt added.
58% say abortion should be legal
Finally, the NBC News national poll shows that nearly six in 10 adults (58%) say abortion should be legal, either always (38%) or most of the time (20%).
By contrast, a combined 38% believe abortion should be illegal, either with exceptions (32%) or no exceptions (6%).
These results are essentially the same as an NBC News poll published a year ago, in May 2022, when 60% said abortion should always or mostly be legal, versus 37% who said it should be. illegal with or without exceptions.
The NBC News poll was conducted April 14-18 among 1,000 adults, including 861 contacted by cell phone, and has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.
The margin of error for the poll’s 800 registered voters is plus-minus 3.46 percentage points, and the margin of error among the 292 Republican primary voters is plus-minus 5.99 percentage points.