The first month of 2023 started with new pressures on prices, derived from situations such as the rise that persists in food and fuel prices, the indexing of different rates to inflation and the increase in the minimum wage. For this reason, analysts expect the inflation figure to be released this Saturday by Dane to show a new escalation.
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In fact, according to the monthly Survey of expectations of economic analysts carried out by the Bank of the RepublicThe market expects that during the first month of the year the price indicator for the basic basket of Colombians will have increased by an average of 1.61%.
In relation to the annual variation that the consumer price index (CPI) would reach, analysts considering that inflation will be located at 13.36% (in a range between 13.03% and 13.66%), according to the latest Financial Opinion Survey collected by Fedesarrollo.
«For the first month of the year, we are expecting inflation of 1.83% in Itaú, which is significantly higher than what we observed a year ago, 1.67%,» says Carolina Monzón, manager of Economic Research for Itaú. , who indicates that a new acceleration in prices will be seen and the annual data would reach 13.3%.
According to the economist, the upward pressures will be seen in different areas, and transportation was especially highlighted, not only due to the increase in the price of gasoline, but also due to the increase in the prices of air tickets as a cause of the changes in VAT and the adjustment that has been made in the prices of public transport in various cities.
In turn, according to Monzón, inflationary pressures are also expected from restaurants and hotels, which have been collecting higher prices for food, as well as the entry into force again of the consumption tax and VAT. Although he said that the CPI for food would continue with upward pressures, it is estimated that they will be much more moderate than planned.
A similar calculation is made by BTG Pactual, which projects a monthly inflation in January of 1.82% to thus reach an annual figure of 13.3%, while the brokerage firm Casa de Bolsa speaks of an increase of 1.9 % in prices compared to December and annual inflation of 13.4%.
Juan David Ballén, director of Analysis and Strategy at Casa de Bolsa, highlighted that January may show especially high signs in relation to food prices due to the closures on the Pan-American Highway, but he emphasized that the increases will come more from other factors.
“On the one hand, we have assets indexed to the minimum wage and inflation at the end of last year, we have a significant rent shock, and food outside the home, which usually has consequences with the increase of the minimum”, he assured.
Today inflation in Colombia is 3.2 times higher than the Issuer’s goal.
Mauricio Moreno. TIME
Grupo Bolívar-Davivienda has a higher expectation with a forecast of 2.16% and 13.68% for monthly and annual inflation in January, respectively.
“In the month, factors linked to the rise in the minimum wage stood out, which will affect groups such as food outside the home; we also have an effect on air tickets due to the increase in VAT and we see an increase in the consumption tax, which the establishments under the simple regime were not charging. In addition, we have the rise in leases, which is linked to last year’s inflation, and we have seen an upward behavior in some perishables, due to the closure of the Popayán – Pasto road, «excludes Andrés Langebeak, director of Economic Studies Grupo Bolívar .
On the other hand, Banco de Bogotá estimates an even greater increase in prices in January, which would be reflected in a variation of 2.2%, with which the annual figure would reach 13.7%.
LAURA LUCIA BECERRA ELEJALDE
Journalist Portfolio