BEIJING — China is bracing for a new wave of Covid-19 infections that could hit 65 million cases a week by the time the wave peaks in late June.
It is a startling prediction in a country that only a few months ago had applied some of the toughest covid control protocols on the planet. Now, with the latest omicron variant, XBB, fueling a resurgence of cases, the response from China’s government and public is muted at best.
The surge comes some six months after Beijing dismantled its sprawling infrastructure to deal with Covid here, including severe lockdowns, mass testing, sweltering quarantines and strict mask requirements.
«People feel differently about this wave,» said Qi Zhang, 30, who works at a finance company in the northern city of Tianjin. «Last time everyone was terrified, but now they don’t think it’s a big deal,» she told NBC News on Thursday.
The data was disclosed by respiratory disease specialist Zhong Nanshan at a medical conference this week in the southern city of Guangzhou. According to state media, Zhong told the audience that the wave that began in late April was «anticipated» and that his model suggested that China may be approaching 40 million infections per week. By the end of June, he said, the weekly number of infections will peak at 65 million.
The United States, by comparison, reported more than 5 million cases a week at its peak in January 2022. Like the United States, China stopped providing weekly case updates this month, making it difficult to know the true extent of the virus. current outbreak.
The State Department said the United States, which imposed a testing requirement on travelers from China in January before lifting it in March, was discussing China’s second wave of Covid with allies and partners but declined to say whether they were discussing it. considering travel restrictions. Spokesman Matt Miller said the department would monitor the situation along with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention before updating travel guidelines.
“We don’t want to see people anywhere, obviously, suffering from covid-19,” Miller said Wednesday. “The United States government remains committed to working with [China] on transnational challenges, including global health issues and maintaining open lines of communication.
During China’s first wave of covid in December and January, a different omicron variant infected millions of people every day, overwhelming hospitals and crematoriums in cities across the country. Store shelves were emptied of fever medicine and schools closed.
About 80% of China’s 1.4 billion people were infected during that wave, Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control, said in January. But immunity may have waned in the months afterward, increasing the risk of reinfection.
Zhong told the medical conference that the government had given preliminary approval to two vaccines targeting XBB subvariants, which are already circulating in the US, and others could be approved soon.
Joey Wang, 24, a student from Hebei province, said many people were finding the Covid symptoms less severe this time around. But public fears also appear to have eased with the change in government messaging.
“No more media trying to terrorize the public, no more short ‘fight the pandemic’ type videos to alert people, and no more harsh measures like lockdowns,” he said.
The dovish response from the Chinese government comes as it tries to revive the economy and reassure US and foreign companies, which would react negatively to a return of restrictions.
“Covid-zeroing has disrupted business a lot,” said Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, “and so we said over and over again to the Chinese government, what businesses need is stability, clarity , so they can plan.»
Zhang, the finance clerk, said colleagues who recently tested positive chose to come to work anyway, in contrast to the first wave, when everyone spent long stretches working from home.
“When I look back at such strict Covid measures, it feels like a dream,” he said. “It makes me wonder if all those strict lockdowns were right if we ended up here anyway.”
Janis Mackey Frayer reported from Beijing and Jennifer Jett from Hong Kong.
dawn liu, Jace Zhang and abigail williams contributed.