WASHINGTON – The launch of President Joe Biden’s 2024 campaign on Tuesday pushes America one step closer to Biden-Trump II, the rematch voters don’t want.
Biden has no serious challenger for the Democratic nomination, and former President Donald Trump is the clear favorite for a third straight Republican nomination.
Ironically, a return commitment seems increasingly likely at a time when the vast majority of Americans believe the country the two men led one after the other is on the wrong track. More specifically, in an NBC News poll released Sunday, 70 percent of respondents said Biden should not run and 60 percent said Trump should not.
Adding to the sense of impasse, most polls show longtime rivals within a few points of each other, suggesting there hasn’t been a seismic political shift in the country since Biden won the 2020 electoral college. thanks to statistically close wins in several key states.
“Culturally, society is used to new forms of entertainment,” said Faiz Shakir, who led the 2020 Democratic primary campaign for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. «A repeat, understandably for this generation of Americans, is not that exciting.»
Trump, twice impeached and under indictment in New York, casts the election in apocalyptic terms by telling voters that he is the only candidate who can stop World War III. He also vows to boost the economy, appoint conservative judges to the court and establish 10 «freedom cities» on federal land.
Democrats have second thoughts when it comes to Trump. On a purely political level, they see a useful contrast that he was the dominant figure in three consecutive disappointing elections for National Republicans. But they also see Trump as an existential threat to the sanctity of the republic. In a statement Monday scheduled to come ahead of Biden’s launch, Trump reiterated false claims that his 2020 loss was «rigged,» a lie that inspired the January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol.
Pete Giangreco, a veteran consultant who advised Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., during her bid for the Democratic nomination in 2020, said what he described as extremism by Trump and his congressional allies will help Biden.
“This is a Republican Party that has shed both traditional conservatism and reality,” he said.
But like other Democrats, he worries about the electorate’s perception of an economy that Biden credits himself as savior from the pandemic impasse.
«There are a lot of people who, despite the numbers, have a rather negative view of the economy,» Giangreco said. «Even if the inflation number were to halve between now and next year, it’s still hard to convince people of any good news.»
The inflation rate and the stagnation of wages are two data that Trump uses to argue that Biden has been a failure for the economy. In Trump’s version of the nation’s recent history, he was a victim of circumstance due to the economic wreckage wrought by the pandemic, and he must be given credit for beginning to repair it.
“President Trump created the largest economy our country has ever had, in fact twice the size,” said Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller. «And he’s ready to do it again.»
It seems inevitable that if the two men meet again (Trump still has to win the Republican nomination for that to happen), the rematch will be framed around Trump. Democrats say it will serve them well.
«It’s going to be very difficult to convince voters of your opinion on Donald Trump,» said Rep. Brendan Boyle, D-Pa. “A clear majority of Americans have a negative opinion of former President Trump.”
That’s true, but Biden’s approval ratings are also below the waterline: The NBC poll showed 38 percent of adults view him positively, while Trump’s number was 34 percent. hundred.
Both men lean heavily on their records to act as validators for what they would do with a second term, pointing to their myriad differences in the realms of politics, politics, and personality.
«There has never been a greater contrast between two successive administrations in the entire history of the United States,» Trump said in his Monday statement. «Ours is greatness and theirs is failure.»
But Giancreco said that Trump is backing into a corner.
“Presidential elections are almost always about the future, and there is no way that Donald Trump is the future,” Giangreco said. «Interestingly, Joe Biden is the future and Donald Trump is the past.»
Still, voters can be forgiven if they begin to feel a sense of deja vu from both candidates, their campaigns, and their political allies.
Brendan Buck, a longtime Republican strategist, predicted that the sequel to the last election would attract a lot of interest, largely due to the challenger’s ability to focus media attention on himself.
“In a normal world, one might expect this to dampen enthusiasm, but Trump will take care of it,” Buck said. «If this is the matchup we end up with, it won’t be a boring election and there won’t be a lack of turnout.»
Biden’s approval numbers are deceptively low, Shakir said, because some progressives would like to see him move more in their direction. Those voters will turn out to support him next year, Shakir added, because of the contrast between the candidates.
“You start with an advantage,” he said, citing abortion and “good, competent government” among the issues he believes favor Biden. But he and other Democratic strategists say they see a close race that Trump could win.
«It would have to be largely processed by the economy and raise questions and concerns about the economic direction of this country,» Shakir said.