Alberto Fernández, who ruled out running for re-election as Argentine president last Friday, never imagined that reconciling with former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2007-2015), after a decade of fights, would take him to the top of power. What he also did not predict was that political tensions with his «old friend,» coupled with questionable financial management in difficult times, would mark his first and only term.
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“We received a country in debt, in recession, in default, with high poverty and inflation (…). We had to face a global pandemic, a war and, right now, the consequences of a brutal drought. It is clear that we did not achieve everything we set out to do. On December 10, I will hand over the presidential sash to whoever has been legitimately elected at the polls,» said the 64-year-old president in the video that he uploaded to his Twitter account announcing the decision.
And it is that the panorama for Fernández cannot be more suffocating. Less than eight months after leaving the Casa Rosada, Argentina is going through an economic crisis, with very high inflation (7.7 percent in March and 104 annualized) and a negative image of about 70 percent, according to a recent survey by the Polyarchy Consultant.
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“Alberto Fernández is one of the least popular presidents that Argentina has had in its democratic history. Added to this is the fact that the government’s economic policy failed in terms of controlling inflation, a historic drought and a security crisis. Practically, we are talking about a breeding ground that, if the political situation deteriorates even more, can have very negative effects,” Matías Franchini, Ph. D. in International Relations and academic at the Universidad del Rosario, told EL TIEMPO.
kirchnerist pressure
Fernández took its toll on the wear generated by his strong disagreements with Vice President Cristina Kirchner. A combination that many warned about would be explosive since, in 2019, the former president announced it as her presidential candidate, with her as the campaign formula.
Convinced that only a united Peronism could unseat the then president, the liberal Mauricio Macri, Fernández did not hesitate to iron out the rough edges that led him to abruptly leave the Kirchner government in 2008 and seize the leadership of the country.
However, from the beginning of his term, Alberto Fernández was designated by the opposition as Cristina’s «puppet». Something that, especially, became evident in economic decisions.
Despite the fact that Fernández endured the restrictions to buy dollars, he did not modify taming inflation. In addition, the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to refinance the credit for 44,500 million dollars earned during Macri’s term great tensions with Kirchnerism, very critical of the organization, to the point that the country saw three ministers parade economy in less than a month.
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And although things stabilized with the current minister of said portfolio, Sergio Massa, just this week he threatened to resign, at a time when the IMF has said that it will not agree to make the program more flexible, unless the Government accelerates the devaluation.
A daunting task, since the increase in the price of the basket has left families with serious difficulties to feed themselves, in a country where close to 40 percent of the people live in poverty. In fact, since the country fell victim to runaway hyperinflation in the early 1990s, the situation had never reached such a critical level.
«From the Government itself, where there are some ministers who answer to Cristina, systematic pressure arose then for Alberto to give up his re-election,» Franchini explains.
In statements to Efe, Mariel Fornoni, director of the Management and Fit consultancy, assured that Fernández’s chances of re-election were «very low», and that they simply have his decision up in the air to have «some power» until the elections. «But it seems to me that the economic context put too much pressure on him,» Fornoni stresses, referring to the exchange turbulence registered in recent days, attributed in the local press, in part, to the internal dispute within the ruling party.
«The president’s announcement was something not so unexpected, taking into account what happened in the last 48 hours, where the inmates in the Government were agitated, and there were rumors of the departure of Massa», difficult, for his part, the analyst politician Patricio Giusto. In his opinion, the so-called «super minister» pressured to «generate certainty» and, «apparently», the president’s promise so that Massa would not leave office was to announce his resignation from re-election, trying to «pave the way» for order the official internal and transmit «more certainty to the markets.»
Peronist replacement?
Upon learning of Fernández’s electoral resignation, visible faces of the ruling Frente de Todos gave their opinion, including Foreign Minister Santiago Cafiero, close to the president, who considered his decision a «historic responsibility», and Interior Minister Eduardo ‘Wado’ of Pedro, one of those closest to the vice president and another possible presidential candidate: «It is a necessary step to start ordering Peronism,» he said.
For the political consultant Enrique Zuleta Puceiro, this decision «opens a new stage» in the political landscape. “There is an opportunity for the political forces to shuffle. That is the feeling that each other must be feeling: ‘we have gotten into a quagmire, let’s start again’”. «But if there is not a strong component of innovation and commitment to coming out of the crisis, things can be worse», request him.
Franchini added in this regard that «Fernández’s resignation is not a point of union, but a starting point for the electoral reorganization of Peronism.» “The pro-government coalition could be facing an electoral beating in the next elections, it is even foreseen that they will not even enter the second round of the elections, which would be a resounding failure,” he added.
With Cristina Kirchner out of the ring, since she publicly gave up seeking the presidency or any other elective position after the court sentenced her to six years in prison and political disqualification for corruption last December, the ranks of the opposition are not very clear either.
Like Kirchner, Mauricio Macri also gave up seeking re-election for his movement, Together for Change.
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The mayor of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, has already begun his campaign for the primaries, as has the former Minister of Security Patricia Bullrich.
It is speculated that Sergio Massa could launch his application if he manages to improve the economic situation, especially inflation. The ambassador in Brazil, Daniel Scioli, also expressed their willingness to run; the governor of Chaco, Jorge Capitanich, and the social leader Juan Grabois.
Emerging in this electoral process appears deputy Javier Milei, a 52-year-old «libertarian» economist and politician who wields a strong right-wing and anti-system discourse and would occupy third place in the presidential election, according to polls.
The question that remains is whether Fernández will support a dolphin or declare himself dispensable. In the environment of the president, they indicate that he would like someone from his core to be the candidate, «although it is difficult for him to become the head of anyone’s campaign» for August 13, when the political parties must carry out the so-called mandatory primary elections (Paso).
What is certain is that in the coming months the country will see an agonizing procession of candidates pass by who will promise the impossible to convince them that they have the formula to get out of the crisis and receive the presidential sash this 10th from the hands of the crestfallen President Fernández. December, the exact day that Argentina will celebrate 40 years of democracy