The battle lines are drawn in what could be the closest election of 2023: Democratic Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear will run for a second term against the state’s Republican attorney general, Daniel Cameron.

Cameron entered the Republican primary as the favorite, but before winning the nomination on Tuesday, he had to handle the challenge of opponents, including Kelly Craft, the former ambassador to the United Nations, who poured millions of her own dollars into a failed bid. . Now the Republicans turn to the general election, where they face a new fight: dethroning the popular Beshear, no easy task even with the state leaning to the right.

A January poll found Beshear with a 61% approval rating, and the Morning Consult April poll found his approval rating at 63%higher than for all but four governors in the company’s cross-country surveys.

Jesse Hunt, former communications director for the Republican Governors Association, praised Cameron as «a perfect foil for a political scion like Andy Beshear,» arguing that his statewide platform gives Cameron credibility with voters. But he added that Beshear’s positive image makes it imperative that Republicans leave no stone unturned to tarnish him.

«To have any success against him, you need to start eroding several years of goodwill that he’s built up among his constituency,» Hunt said. «That is a task that should start as soon as humanly possible.»

At just 37, Cameron has been seen as a rising star in the Kentucky Republican Party for years, rising from a federal judicial internship to a role as legal counsel to Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell before becoming the first attorney general. black from the state in 2019. he won more votes than Beshear that year, as Beshear won his first term as governor by a very narrow margin.

But while Cameron’s political career has been tied to McConnell, whom praised as a «mentor» when he won in 2019, McConnell took a public back seat to Cameron’s gubernatorial bid. Instead, Cameron, who would be Kentucky’s first black governor if he wins this fall, has touted support for former President Donald Trump, using his endorsement to counter Craft’s arguments that he was not conservative enough.

“He has the best of both worlds: McConnell’s skill set and Trump’s endorsement,” said Al Cross, a longtime political journalist and columnist in the state who is also a professor of journalism at the University of Kentucky.

Daniel Cameron.Timothy D. Easley File / AP Pool

“Cameron is sure of every word he says, just like McConnell. He is not afraid to leave a question unanswered or leave something uncommented,” Cross added. «He has served him well.»

Republicans also have an improved political environment since 2019, when then-Gov. Matt Bevin lost to Beshear. Bevin sported a lousy approval rating, having worn down his welcome with many on both sides of the aisle. The Democrats’ 6 percentage point voter registration advantage in 2019 has evaporated, and the Republicans held a 1.5 percentage point advantage in April. And Trump won Kentucky in 2020 by 26 percentage points.

Still, taking down Beshear won’t be easy, because he starts from a position of strength.

While many in Kentucky have long been familiar with his father, former Gov. Steve Beshear, Andy Beshear, 45, is heading for his own popular re-election bid in his own right.

Beshear has portrayed himself as a governor focused on kitchen-table issues, from trumpeting new infrastructure funds to repair a crucial bridge between Kentucky and Ohio to touting that the state has hit the lowest unemployment numbers in the history.

Re-election, Cross said, would set a good example for Democrats of how their party «can still win in states with large rural populations and a Republican voting record.»

Beshear was also forced into the role of chief comforter, after a massive tornado struck Kentucky in 2021, devastating parts of the state, including his father’s hometown — and after horrific flooding that killed at least 25 people in eastern Kentucky last year.

The first rulings in the general election have already surfaced, including differences over covid and social issues such as transgender rights and abortion.

Cameron’s and Beshear’s offices clashed repeatedly over executive authority during the pandemic, with Cameron suing the administration on multiple occasions. The cases included one about a temporary interruption to in-person learning (who lost cameron), as well as his successful defense of the attempts of the General Assembly to limit Beshear’s executive authority.

But while Republicans see an opportunity to accuse Beshear of overreaching, the pandemic also presents a fortress for him. His high approval rating developed, in part, when he took center stage in Kentucky’s response to the fight against Covid-19, including in countless televised emergency press conferences across the state.

Then there are the issues of the culture war.

Republicans have attacked Beshear for vetoing a bill that included a series of restrictions on transgender youth, which Cameron said he would have signed. cameron added that his “administration will protect our youth from dangerous ideologies and uphold Kentucky values,” while Beshear wrote in a veto message that “my faith teaches me that all children are children of God and Senate Bill 150 It will endanger the children of Kentucky.” (The Republican legislature overrode Beshear’s veto.)

And Democrats point to the issue of abortion rights in a red state where voters nonetheless rejected an anti-abortion ballot measure last year, a year after a similar playbook attacking a Democratic governor for abortion and transgender issues, failed in Kansas.

Sam Newton, communications director for the Democratic Governors Association, said Democrats welcome a contrast, even in a state that Trump won by double digits just a few years ago.

“They’re going to try to paint him as some kind of bogeyman, but Kentuckians are going to say: No, that’s not Andy Beshear, because he’s been in my community. He shows up and fights for me,” Newton said. «I may not agree with him on every issue, but I know he shows up, does his job, and is always trying to do the right thing.»